Success and the Surge

The ultimate problem in Iraq is that no matter how successful our military might be at eliminating any insurgency or terrorism on the ground, there will never be a political solution that revolves around a strong central government. The various political factions will never be willing to compromise on any major issues or stick to their word on any agreement. This is one of the main reasons our troops are having some much difficulty on the ground in the first place.

We should either federalize Iraq into distinct units now or let them do it on their own through a civil war. Either way our troops should be coming home before the end of this year. Otherwise we will just be wasting more lives and more money for a lost cause. Iraq is not ready for national democracy, nor will it ever be because it is not a nation-state. It is post-WW I compromise based on administrative divisions in the Ottoman empire. They either need to split up or go through the same civil war process that every other democracy on earth has gone through at one time or another in order to evolve into a true democracy.

Although any nation or province in the world is vulnerable to attack or civil war, I don’t think the Kurdish areas have anything to fear from their fellow Arab Iraqis for the same reason they are being left alone now. They were slaughtered in the early 90s (and periodically in the 80s) so that Hussein could keep strong control over the region. That could happen theoretically in Iraq if another military warlord decides he wants to take over the whole country again. But for now, they have quasi-independence and everyone seems to leave them alone. The U.S. leaving will not likely change that dynamic since we don’t seem to have much control or influence over it in the first place.

The Sunni Arabs, with whom the Kurds are intermixed in several areas have gotten along with their fellow Sunnis with few problems (and likely would not alienate the Kurds out of fear of Shiite domination). The Shiites don’t hold them responsible in any way for Hussein’s atrocities against them either. I could see the day when a Shiite dictator decides to dominate the entire country again, but I suspect that the Kurds are now armed to the teeth and would do a good job resisting any attack from any existing army or militia that exists now. They will also have plenty of time to create a real army to resist any subsequent dictatorship that may arise that does have the command of a modern army.

One of the reasons Slovenia was able to declare independence from Yugoslavia with few repercussions is because the nation was almost 100% Slovene with few Serbs. Yugoslavia left after a 10-day war with them because Slovenia was fully armed and would have given the Yugoslav army a real bloody nose if they had continued to stay. Right now, there really is no strong army in Iraq under anyone’s command (other than the U.S. army). All of the militias are basically armed thugs and would be slaughtered if they attempted to invade someone’s home territory with no logistical backing, command structure, air support, or armored vehicles. Having control and order in Iraq is all about having the support of the local population.

Any civil war will likely leave the Kurds largely untouched. The thing that the Kurds do have to fear is potential invasion from Turkey, Iran, and Syria, all of which have large Kurdish enclaves that those countries try to maintain strict control over. Recently Turkey massed a large number of troops at the northern border of Iraq to supposedly quell rebel activity in southeastern Turkey. A few months ago Charles Krauthammer prosed moving U.S. troops into the Kurdish area, let the civil war takes in course, and then move back in to mop up and cooperate with everyone left once they had come to their senses. That may not be a bad idea.