Iraq - Positive Short Term News

Growing With Time by Charles Krauthammer

I read a lot of columnists (mostly considered conservative) but Charles Krauthammer is the one I seem to agree with most of the time. He is probably considered more of a libertarian than a conservative, so that it likely why I find myself agreeing with him so much. If I ever get around to deconstructing the basic principles of conservatism vs. libertarianism, I think I will find that his schema and mine are remarkably similar in construction.

His latest article is a lot different from his usually commentary about Iraq in that he is stating the positive things are finally happening - perhaps as a result of the much-touted "Surge" no less.

From the conclusion of the article: In the long run, agreements on oil, federalism and de-Baathification are crucial for stabilizing Iraq. But their absence at this moment is not a reason to give up in despair, now that we finally have a counterinsurgency strategy in place that is showing success against the one enemy that both critics and supporters of the war maintain must be fought everywhere and at all cost -- al-Qaeda.

Here is the problem. The success he mentions is that the Sunni leaders is predominantly Sunni areas are "cooperating" with American forces in eliminating Al Qaeda in their home turf. This has nothing to do with the surge or with some pretense at cooperation on a national level. This has everything to do with local public sentiment turning against Al Quaeda for any number of reasons - principal among them probably being the competition for control of the area.

These Sunni leaders want power. They welcomed us a liberators initially because the defeat of the Saddam and the Iraqi central government meant more power for them. They turned against us when they saw that a central government backed by us would result in the loss of their power. As a result they let insurgent organizations and Al Qaeda (or Al Qaeda wannabes) run wild in attacking American troops. They likely neither backed nor supported these groups but preferred to see them waste their energy against Americans and driving them out.

Now the problem for them is that these elements are becoming too powerful for them in their own realms and are now a threat to them. Thousands of armed foreign fighters are eventually going to organize and attempt to control the areas they operate in for simple support and logistics purposes. This was why were able to Al-Zarquawi so quickly once he made himself known as a leadership presence. The local Sunni leaders don't mind a disorganized rabble sporadically attacking foreign troops sent by and in cooperation with a Shiite led central government (or any central government for that matter). They do, however, mind a separate organization setting up a political and military niche in their home territory.

The same will hold true in the rest of Iraq. My own suspicion is that the reason the Kurdish areas are so peaceful is because we have already made them semi-autonomous and put them under the direct control of the local leaders.

I still agree with the early predictions of many commentators prior to the invasion of Iraq that it is impossible to create an Iraq with a strong central government. Three (or more) semi-autonomous provinces would be the only arrangement that has any chance of succeeding. And as much as everyone hates the term "ethnic cleansing", the movement of the various ethnic groups in the Balkans has come close to producing a lasting peace there. The mass movement of people to areas where their loyalties lie and a big wall will likely stop the bombings that are now targeted more toward civilians than the military. The area around Baghdad itself might have a chance of becoming a multi-ethnic secular state, but it would have to be completely independent from the other areas of the country.

In short, Krauthammer's optimistic assessment of the situation may be correct in the short run, but this country will likely degenerate into civil war sooner or later as long as we cling the notion of creating a strong central government. The country is not ready for it. We can either create it for them now or let them create it for themselves after we leave. Either way, there is no point in risking American lives on this war any more not to mention the cost.