Iraq

If We Pulled Out Of Iraq

A news site bloggers correct assessment of the situation on the ground and the inevitable future that Iraq faces no matter how long we remain.

Kurdistan will remain relatively peaceful though at constant odds with Turkey. The area will have to become a U.S. protectorate to avoid invasion by Turkey or Iran.

Shiite militias and Sunni militias will clash until the Shiites drive the Sunnis out of just about everywhere except western Iraq.

The Shiite areas will degenerate into a full blown civil war between rival factions. Iran will attempt to play friend to all sides until they are forced to choose - at which point whichever side they pick will have public sentiment turn against them. Iran will then be bogged down in an even bigger mess than we have now and may face a retaliatory invasion or a revolt among its general population if there is even a hint of sending Iranian soldiers into combat.

A democracy cannot spring forth from anything except a nation-state. Iraq is not a nation-state and never will be.

Time to start withdrawing and saving what little we can. Even if the surge is successful, it will merely be a cosmetic measure that will be swept away a week after we leave.

If the fear is that Iraq will become a base for Al-Quaeda operation against the U.S., fear not. Once we are gone, the recent converts to Al-Quaeda will drop that banner and take up sides with whichever local faction they favor in the Civil War to follow. The Al-Quaeda factions there are interested in getting American troops out of Iraq. Once we are gone, they will be too busy with their own civil war to plan attacks against us here. Most I suspect fit the profile of low-level street thug rather than international terrorist.