Ron Paul excluded

Fox News: "We decide what you decide."

The excuse for excluding Ron Paul is that there wasn't enough room at the table. Give me a break. The good thing for Ron Paul is that the five of them looked like kids who were being punished for making to much racket by running all around the house. Sit down and keep your hands to yourselves! It may even be what shot up his polling numbers to 14% (3rd in that poll) although that may just be an anomaly. He is still landing somewhere around 8%. Ahead of Fred Thompson in all polls, ahead of Giuliani about 60% of the time, and behind Huckabee about 80% of the time, but still close.

So here is what grinds my gears. Bob Novak's predictions for the race are as follows:

1st Place: McCain, but vulnerable.
2nd Place: Romney, but rallying.
3rd Place: Huckabee.
4th Place: Giuliani.
5th Place: Former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.).

Where is Ron Paul? Just because Fox News has banished him, he is still going to be ahead of Fred Thompson tomorrow. He has a good chance of beating Giuliani. He may even beat Huckabee since most pundits think he had a poor showing during Sunday's debate.

The interesting thing to see is if the lack of coverage by Fox actually helped him or hurt him. Drudge is reporting that the ABC debates, which did include Ron Paul, had 2 million more viewers than Fox (on a Saturday night no less). New Hampshire is not the bastion of conservatism it used to be and there probably a lot of registered Republicans and independents who don't like Fox for one reason or another. It is quite possible that based on a purely emotional reaction, they will vote for Ron Paul, just to stick it to Fox.

The other question is what independents that are more interested in the Dems will do. It was imagined that a lot would want to get involved either for Obama or Clinton. But now that the bandwagon has started rolling for Obama among democrats, will independents prefer to jump on the bandwagon or stick it to Fox by voting for Ron Paul? That may be an important factor not so much because Ron Paul will run away with a third place finish, but it may be just enough to put him over Huckabee. Fox will look a bit ridiculous then, but who knows what will happen.

We may even see Ron Paul carrying his exclusion as a badge of pride. He has a lot (A LOT) of young supporters, many of whom seem to be a bit on the liberal side and perhaps even hostile to a lot of conservative ideas. Losing Fox may even help them to convince more young people to get on board. Back in the day, I was excited at the idea of a conservative based new network. Nowadays though, they are anything but conservative in ideology. They are conservative only in the preserving the status quo sense.

One other thought. If anyone is the voice of the conservative movement in the U.S. right now (and for quite some time) it is Rush Limbaugh. The only disparaging thing I have heard him say about Ron Paul is that he can't win. He rarely mentions him on the show otherwise, which is fine. So hear is the question. The dems and media LOVE Huckabee, but Rush, Ann Coulter, and others are pulling out all of the stops to derail Huckabee. Rush has said that McCain is not a conservative and has indicated that Romney and Giuliani have some shortcomings in their credentials as well. He seems to think Fred Thompson is a conservative, but not perhaps a shining star.

So what if Huckabee keeps winning as appears likely? Fred Thompson drops out. Where do his votes go? Maybe to Romney or McCain. Giuliani drops out. Where do his votes go? Probably McCain or Romney, but almost certainly not Huckabee. So now the Huckabee juggernaut is riding strong and McCain and Romney are still attacking each other non-stop. One eventually drops out. Where do those votes go? Well, if there is enough animosity, they may go to Huckabee, but what if they went to Paul instead. McCain supporters may not like Ron Paul, but if he has kept himself out of the fray, not attacked anyone, and stayed away from the bible-thumping populism of Huckabee, they may go to Paul. What about if Romney drops out? His supporters are not likely to go to Huckabee either for various reasons. He is not a social conservative; neither is McCain, neither is Giuliani. Would they give Ron Paul a second look to avoid Huckabee? Would they be turned off enough by Huckabee's use of religion to vote for Paul? It's quite possible. What about genuine conservatives? Would they start to have second thoughts after Huckamania dies down? Especially if Rush, Coulter, Will, and anyone else with conservative followings is crying from the high hills: this is no conservative!? Would they go with Ron Paul who is otherwise a social conservative but also has the fiscal conservative arguments in his favor?

Who knows. Just some thoughts to toss around.